In early 2025, Canadian potash exports became an important issue in the changing trade relationship between Canada and the United States (U.S.).
Potash refers to a group of minerals and chemicals that contain potassium, an element vital to the health of plants, animals and humans. Potash is used in fertilizers to help plants grow, increase crop yield and enhance disease resistance. Potassium is one of three elements, along with nitrogen and phosphorous, that is depleted from soil faster than it can be replenished and must therefore be applied to fields to keep them in continuous agricultural use.
While there are several varieties of potash, this HillNote refers to the variety known as potassium chloride, or muriate of potash, which accounts for over 80% of global potash consumption. Where other varieties of potash are mentioned, they are expressed as potassium oxide (K2O) equivalents.
Canadian Potash Sector
Potash production in Canada has a long history, with the first exports recorded in 1767. At the time, the traditional practice of leaching potash from wood ashes was used as potash was not yet mined in Canada. Potash was discovered underground in Saskatchewan in 1943, and significant potash mine development occurred in the 1970s and 1980s.
Today, Canada is the biggest producer of potash in the world, representing 32% of global production volume in 2023. Canada’s 11 active potash mines are all located in Saskatchewan, directly employing 5,400 people and accounting for 11% of the province’s gross domestic product. According to the Government of Saskatchewan’s Critical Minerals Strategy, the province’s potash mines produce 50% fewer greenhouse gas emissions per tonne of potash than global competitors’ mines. The mines located in Canada are owned by four companies: The Mosaic Company and Compass Minerals, both based in the U.S., K+S Potash, based in Germany, and Nutrien, based in Canada.
A fifth player, Australia’s BHP, will begin production at a new potash mine in Jansen, Saskatchewan in 2026, which is projected to increase Canadian production by 40% once fully operational in 2029. BHP is unique in the sector in having opportunity agreements in place with six First Nations. The agreements commit to building Indigenous business capacity, utilizing Indigenous suppliers and providing training and employment opportunities in Indigenous partner communities. The company also consulted with a broad set of Indigenous communities and organizations to develop its Indigenous Partnerships Plan, which commits to 20% Indigenous employee representation at the Jansen site by March 2027. BHP has since stated that there have been challenges in realizing these commitments to date, and “that a more robust mechanism to establish accountability and track the achievement of successful outcomes was needed to ensure successful implementation in the future.”
Canadian potash exports have been relatively stable since 2019, hovering at around 20 million tonnes per year. The ability to steadily grow Canadian exports in recent years has been challenging due to production issues during the COVID-19 pandemic, frequent labour disruptions at ports and in the railway sector, and forest fires. More than 90% of the potash produced in Canada is exported, with the remainder used domestically; quantities of potash imported are extremely small. The top export markets for Canadian potash in 2024 are displayed in Figure 1.
Figure 1 – Destination Countries of Canadian Potash Exports, 2024
(in million tonnes of potassium chloride)
Source: Figure prepared by the Library of Parliament using data obtained from Statistics Canada, “Canadian International Merchandise Trade Web Application,” Database, accessed 20 March 2025. Contains information licensed under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Canada–United States Potash Trade
Global potash production is highly concentrated in a small number of countries, with Canada, Russia, Belarus and China accounting for 78% of production in 2024 (potassium oxide equivalent). The U.S. does not import potash from Belarus due to sanctions it imposed on that country in 2021. While the U.S. has also imposed sanctions on Russia, agricultural products, including potash, are exempt. Figure 2 shows Canada’s dominance in both global potash production and exports to the U.S. in 2024.
Figure 2: Top Producers of Potash and Top Exporters to the United States in 2024
Source: Map prepared by the Library of Parliament, 2025, using data obtained from United States International Trade Commission, “DataWeb: U.S. Trade & Tariff Data,” Database, accessed 20 March 2025; U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, version 1.2, March 2025, p. 139; and Natural Earth, 1:110m Cultural Vectors, version 5.11. The following software was used: Esri, ArcGIS Pro, version 3.4.3.
Throughout the first months of 2025, the new U.S. administration made a series of announcements regarding changes to its international trade policy. As part of these changes, on 1 February 2025, the administration announced 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada, with energy imports subject to a 10% tariff. By 2 April 2025, the U.S. had shifted its stance, unveiling plans to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian imports that are non-compliant with the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), and a 10% tariff on non-compliant energy and potash imports.
While U.S. trade policy may continue to shift, there is optimism about the Canadian potash sector’s ability to weather various U.S. tariff scenarios. For example, RBC Capital Markets has indicated that even if all Canadian potash exports to the U.S. were subject to the 25% tariffs initially announced, this “might only cause a temporary slowdown in U.S. demand. Canadian potash should remain affordable, and the U.S. would likely continue to depend on it due to a lack of alternative sources.” Figure 3 shows that the price of Canadian potash exported to the U.S. in 2024 was competitive with that of other major exporters to the U.S.
Figure 3: Price of Potash from Top Exporters to the United States, 2024 (US$ per tonne)
Notes: Belarus is a top global producer of potash; however, import data is not available for 2024 as the country is sanctioned by the United States.
While there is no potash mining in India, the country is a top potash exporter to the U.S. as it manufactures potassic fertilizer from imported potash. The price of potash imported into the U.S. from India in the last five years ranged from $US1,000 per tonne in 2021 to US$24,083 per tonne in 2024. This data has been excluded to ensure the readability of the chart.
Sources: Figure prepared by the Library of Parliament using data obtained from United States International Trade Commission, “DataWeb: U.S. Trade & Tariff Data,” Database, accessed 4 April 2025; and World Bank, World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet), 2 April 2025
Similarly, the leadership of potash mining companies Mosaic, K+S Potash and BHP [subscription required] have all publicly stated that they either do not anticipate a drop in U.S. demand or are confident in finding other buyers for Canadian potash if needed. Nutrien, which is the largest producer of potash in Canada, has said that all of its potash is CUSMA-compliant and should cross the border tariff-free.
It is important to note, however, that the U.S. held bilateral talks with Russia in March 2025, which included a commitment to “help restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertilizer exports, lower maritime insurance costs, and enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions.” The U.S. may be signalling an intention to purchase more Russian potash; however as of 2023, Russian potash exports would not be able to satisfy U.S. demand.
Further Reading
Mussell, Al and Angèle Poirier. Understanding the Risks and Vulnerabilities Facing the Canadian Agricultural Fertilizer Market. The Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute, December 2022.
Natural Resources Canada. The Canadian Critical Minerals Strategy: From Exploration to Recycling – Powering the Green and Digital Economy for Canada and the World. 2022.
By Avalon Jennings, Library of Parliament