The Tremendous Potential of Quantum Technologies: Risks and Opportunities

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Disponible en français.

In Canada and internationally, many stakeholders have been working hard for years to develop quantum technologies because of their potential to have significant impacts in many sectors. Furthermore, on 13 January 2023, the Government of Canada launched its National Quantum Strategy.

Quantum Technology 101

Quantum physics – the science that underpins quantum technologies – is the study of the behaviour of subatomic particles. This behaviour is more easily observed when these particles are grouped together in a coherent set known as a “quantum system.” Because of properties resulting from the behaviour of matter at the atomic and subatomic scale, quantum systems can be very powerful. While classical computer systems use binary information signals (0 or 1) measured in bits, quantum systems use information measured in quantum bits, or qubits, which can have a value of 0 and 1 simultaneously or any combination of 0 and 1 in superposition.

Qubit superposition enables quantum computers [in French] to process information so as to perform multiple tasks simultaneously, which explains why they have exponentially more computing power (as shown in Figure 1) than classical computers, for example.

Figure 1 – Comparison of Processing Power of a Classical Computer and a Quantum Computer

Because of the superposition of qubits, quantum computer processing power grows exponentially with each additional qubit. For example, 1 qubit is equivalent to 2 bits; 2 qubits are equivalent to 4 bits; 3 qubits are equivalent to 8 bits; 4 qubits are equivalent to 16 bits; 5 qubits are equivalent to 32 bits; 6 qubits are equivalent to 64 bits; 7 qubits are equivalent to 128 bits; 8 qubits are equivalent to 256 bits; 9 qubits are equivalent to 512 bits; 10 qubits are equivalent to 1,024 bits; 50 qubits are equivalent to 1,125,899,906,842,620 bits; 100 qubits are equivalent to 1,267,650,600,228,230,000,000,000,000,000 bits; 250 qubits are equivalent to 2 to the power of 250 bits; and 1,000 qubits are equivalent to 2 to the power of 1,000 bits.

Sources: Figure prepared by the Library of Parliament using data obtained from Catherine Florès, “Les constructeurs de l’avenir quantique,” Magazine Poly, Polytechnique Montréal, 1 March 2019 [in French]; and IBM Canada, Driving Canada’s Industrial & Academic Eminence towards a National Quantum Strategy, 2021.

Quantum computers will be particularly useful for solving combinatorics problems, which involve finding the optimal way to arrange a set of items. While a classical computer must try every possible permutation to find the solution, a quantum computer can perform these tasks simultaneously.

Figure 2 provides examples of combinatorics problems that quantum computers could solve.

Figure 2 – Examples of Solutions to Combinatorics Problems That Quantum Computers Could Provide in Various Sectors

Using quantum computers to solve combinatorics problems could lead to advances in various fields, including agriculture, finance, information and technology, science and in the production chain. Agriculture: More accurate weather forecasts to optimize activities and the development of more efficient fertilizers. Finance: Faster financial calculations, portfolio optimization, improved arbitrage for international trade, better credit scoring and the detection of fraud. Information and technology: Boosting of artificial intelligence through increased data processing and the optimization of telecommunication network infrastructure and routing. Science: Use of quantum simulations to predict the properties of new molecules, speeding up efforts to discover new medications; development of novel quantum materials to acquire, process, store and distribute information and energy; and analysis of large quantities of data to improve the effectiveness of treatment plans. Production chain: Rapid identification of faults in complex production chains and optimization of delivery routes.

Sources: Figure prepared by the Library of Parliament using information obtained from Francesco Bova, Avi Goldfarb and Roger Melko, “Commercial applications of quantum computing,” EPJ Quantum Technology, Vol. 8, No. 2, 2021; Francesco Bova, Avi Goldfarb and Roger Melko, “Quantum Computing Is Coming. What Can It Do?Harvard Business Review, 16 July 2021 [subscription required]; and Marc Haddad et al., Quantum Computing: A technology of the future already present, PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2019.

Quantum technology is used to secure communications, including through quantum key distribution (QKD), a set of protocols that enable the creation of private encryption keys. In QKD, two parties wishing to exchange information can use quantum systems to generate private encryption keys, ensuring that information the parties exchange remains confidential. Given the sensitivity and complexity of quantum systems, quantum keys cannot be copied or cloned because the parties sharing the secure data could detect any attempt to intercept the keys.

Quantum sensors exploit quantum properties to produce more sensitive, precise measurements than conventional sensors, potentially leading to such technical advances as navigation systems resistant to GPS hacking, among others.

Potential Impacts

Cybersecurity

Quantum computers could break existing cryptography systems. Cryptography is based on the exchange of security keys that decrypt secure data. Classical computers are not powerful enough to decrypt these keys within a reasonable time frame, but quantum computers could become that powerful. As a result, they could break any public encryption key and give access to data secured with current technologies. According to some experts, these quantum systems could be available by 2030.

Accordingly, researchers are working to strengthen existing data security systems. It is worth noting that some experts believe that quantum systems could result in changes to current codes. As a result, researchers are also using methods such as QKD to develop quantum systems for securing data transmission. In late 2022, the United States government adopted the Quantum Computing Cybersecurity Preparedness Act, which recognizes the risks that quantum computing poses to current codes and requires measures to be put in place to secure computing systems in the United States.

Economy and Employment

Canadian quantum technology initiatives, including in quantum computing, will contribute significantly to Canada’s economy. Figure 3 shows projections of the economic impact (including indirect and induced effects) of quantum technology development in Canada over the coming decades.

Figure 3 – Projections of the Economic Impact of the Quantum Technology Industry in Canada

Shows the total economic impact of the quantum technology industry in Canada (including indirect and induced effects) by 2025 up to 2045. This industry is expected to create 1,100 jobs by 2025 and 209,200 jobs by 2045. The economic impact of this industry is projected to grow from $533 million by 2025 to $138.9 billion by 2045.

Source: Figure prepared by the Library of Parliament using data obtained from Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada, National Quantum Strategy Consultations: What We Heard Report.

Talent management is an issue for the development of the quantum technology industry, both domestically and internationally. In a document published for public consultation on the development of a national quantum strategy, Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada noted that persistent efforts are needed to build the necessary talent pool for this industry.

The lack of diversity in the natural and applied sciences workforce, particularly in sciences, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) fields, is also an issue in Canada. As shown by Figure 4, women hold a minority of jobs in STEM fields.

Figure 4 – Selected Groups in STEM and STEM-Related Occupations Compared to the Overall Canadian Workforce, 2021

Women make up 48% of the Canadian workforce, but they hold only 24% of jobs in sciences, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) fields. Visible minority men make up 14% of the Canadian workforce and hold 29% of jobs in STEM fields and 10% of jobs in STEM-related fields. Visible minority women account for 13% of the Canadian workforce; they hold 10% of jobs in STEM fields and 14% of jobs in STEM-related fields. Note: STEM stands for sciences, technology, engineering and mathematics.
Source: Figure prepared by the Library of Parliament using data obtained from Statistics Canada, “
Occupation (STEM and non-STEM) by visible minority, generation status, age and gender: Canada, provinces and territories, census metropolitan areas and census agglomerations with parts,” Database, accessed 30 January 2023.

Another related issue is that, as shown by Figure 5, visible minorities and Indigenous people in the natural and applied sciences – especially visible minority women and Indigenous women – have lower average employment incomes than the Canadian population overall.

Figure 5 – Average Employment Income in the Natural and Applied Sciences – Selected Groups Compared to the Overall Canadian Workforce, 2015In Canada, the average annual employment income in the natural and applied sciences in 2015 was $73,365. For visible minorities, it was $71,391 for men and $60,545 for women. For people identifying as Indigenous, it was $67,917 for men and $54,471 for women.

Sources: Figure prepared by the Library of Parliament using data obtained from Statistics Canada, “Occupation – National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2016 (691), Employment Income Statistics (3), Highest Certificate, Diploma or Degree (7), Visible Minority (15), Work Activity During the Reference Year (4), Age (4D) and Sex (3) for the Population Aged 15 Years and Over Who Worked in 2015 and Reported Employment Income in 2015, in Private Households of Canada, Provinces and Territories and Census Metropolitan Areas, 2016 Census – 25% Sample Data,Data table, 2016 Census, Database, accessed 30 January 2023; and Statistics Canada, “Occupation – National Occupational Classification (NOC) 2016 (691), Employment Income Statistics (3), Highest Certificate, Diploma or Degree (7), Aboriginal Identity (9), Work Activity During the Reference Year (4), Age (4D) and Sex (3) for the Population Aged 15 Years and Over Who Worked in 2015 and Reported Employment Income in 2015, in Private Households of Canada, Provinces and Territories and Census Metropolitan Areas, 2016 Census – 25% Sample Data,” Data table, 2016 Census, Database, accessed 30 January 2023.

Government Initiatives in Canada and Internationally

A number of countries are investing in quantum technologies. Figure 6 provides an overview of these investments in certain countries.

Figure 6 – Quantum Research in Selected Countries

Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, certain countries of the European Union, China and Australia have national quantum strategies. All these countries except for Australia also have regional quantum programs. Canada is investing C$621 million in the quantum industry. Budget 2021 announced spending of C$360 million over seven years starting in 2021–2022 on its national quantum strategy. The United States has announced over $US1.9 billion in funding for its quantum industry. Its National Quantum Initiative Act has authorized up to US$1.275 billion to support various organizations. The United Kingdom has allocated over US$1 billion to the quantum industry. Between 2014 and 2019, US$540 million was provided to launch the National Quantum Technologies Programme. The European Union has awarded over US$1 billion to the quantum industry. Between 2018 and 2021, US$181 million was allocated to its Quantum Flagship program, which includes numerous projects in various sectors in several European countries. China will invest over US$15 billion in its quantum industry, including the creation of a national quantum laboratory. Australia has committed US$121 million to its quantum industry. Between 2017 and 2024, the Australian Research Council will have invested nearly US$100 million in three centres of excellence that focus on quantum research.

Source: Figure prepared by the Library of Parliament using data obtained from Johnny Kung and Muriam Fancy, Quantum Revolution: Report on Global Policies for Quantum Technology, Canadian Institute for Advanced Research, April 2021.

In addition to the initiatives shown in Figure 6, a number of quantum research projects have been launched in Canada in recent years, including the following:

  • Several Canadian universities have quantum research institutes whose work is recognized globally, including the University of Calgary, University of Alberta, University of Toronto, University of Waterloo and Université de Sherbrooke.
  • Several pioneering quantum computing businesses have set up in Canada, including D-Wave, 1QBit, Agnostiq, Anyon, IBM, Intel, Multiverse Computing and Xanadu.
  • Since 2017, the Canadian Space Agency has been working with the University of Waterloo’s Institute for Quantum Computing and with Honeywell on the Quantum Encryption and Science Satellite mission to demonstrate the use of QKD in space. In 2019, the agency awarded $23.5 million to Honeywell for this project.
  • The National Research Council Canada, Defence Research and Development Canada and the Communications Security Establishment have formed the Quantum Security Technology Access Centre to coordinate and strengthen internal government efforts on quantum research.
  • In September 2022, the House of Commons Standing Committee on Industry and Technology presented a report on quantum computing, which includes 11 recommendations to keep Canada in the lead in this field.

Conclusion

Quantum technology development is flourishing, and Canada is already a leader in this area. Given the potential benefits and challenges associated with the development of these technologies, the Parliament of Canada will most likely want to keep a close eye on the progress of this industry, both in Canada and abroad.

By Sarah Lemelin-Bellerose, Library of Parliament



Categories: Business, industry and trade, Science and technology

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