The federal budget outlines the government’s revenue estimates and expenditure priorities for the fiscal year. It is a key component of the parliamentary financial cycle. The outlook for budgetary revenues and expenses can be found in tables A1.8 and A1.9 of Budget 2025.
Figure 1 illustrates Budget 2025 revenues and expenses as a Sankey diagram. This diagram shows the flow of money by category of revenue and expense, where the width of each flow is proportional to its quantity. Revenue flows into the diagram from the left in the form of taxes and other revenues. Expenses flow out on the right side of the diagram in the form of transfers, program expenses, debt charges and net actuarial losses.
Figure 1 – Federal Government Revenues and Expenses, 2025–2026 ($ billions)
Notes: *Other program revenues are affected by consolidated Crown corporation revenues, interest rates, inflation and exchange rate movements (which affect the Canadian-dollar value of foreign-denominated assets).
**Transfers to other governments also include the Quebec Abatement, statutory subsidies, payments under the Canada–Nova Scotia Arrangement on Offshore Revenues, payments for the transfer of Hibernia Net Profits Interest and Incidental Net Profits Interest net revenues to Newfoundland and Labrador and Fiscal Stabilization payments. These transfers account for approximately -$7.6 billion in expenses. Thus, the forecasted amount of funds disbursed for transfers to other levels of government prior to other fiscal arrangements is approximately $118.5 billion.
***“Health transfers” corresponds to the “Canada Health Transfer.” “Health agreements” corresponds to “Health agreements with provinces and territories.”
Source: Figure prepared by the Library of Parliament, 2025, using data obtained from Government of Canada, Canada Strong, Budget 2025.
Budgetary Revenues
The first step in putting Budget 2025 together is estimating total revenues from, among others, income taxes, excise taxes and duties. These estimates are reflected in the light-blue (second from the left) section of the diagram. The breakdown of these revenue sources by component can be seen in the dark-blue (leftmost) section of the diagram. Personal income tax revenues are the largest component, accounting for about 68% of total income tax revenues and roughly 47% of total budgetary revenues for 2025–2026 shown in the grey (middle) section of the diagram. Corporate income tax accounts for about 19% of total budgetary revenues for the fiscal year.
The Goods and Services Tax (GST) is the largest source of revenue from excise taxes and duties, accounting for about 69% of the total in 2025–2026. The GST accounts for around 11% of total budgetary revenues for the fiscal year.
The federal government then estimates revenue from additional sources, including Employment Insurance premiums, foreign exchange reserves and revenue from other programs and Crown corporations. These revenue sources are reflected in the light-blue (second from the left) section of the diagram and comprise about 16% of total budgetary revenues.
Budgetary Expenses
Budget 2025 breaks down total federal budgetary expenses into six main components: net actuarial losses, direct program expenses, public debt charges, transfers to other levels of government, transfers to persons and pollution pricing proceeds returned to Canadians. These expenses are illustrated in the dark-beige (second from the right) section of the diagram. Transfers to persons (the elderly, families with children and workers) are around 24% of total budgetary expenses for 2025–2026.
The light-beige (rightmost) section of the diagram provides greater detail on the government’s expenditure estimates. Other program expenses, which include the expenditures of departments, agencies and Crown corporations, are the largest component of direct program expenses and account for about 23% of total budgetary expenses for 2025–2026. Health transfers represent around 9% of total budgetary expenses.
Budgetary Balance
Total budgetary revenues and expenses for 2025–2026 are shown in the grey (or middle) section of the diagram. The federal government estimates that total budgetary revenues will be $507.5 billion for the fiscal year, and total budgetary expenses will be $585.9 billion. Thus, total budgetary expenses will need to be financed by a $78.3 billion deficit. This deficit represents about 15% of total budgetary expenses.
By Emmanuel Preville, Library of Parliament
Categories: Economics and finance, Government, Parliament and politics